Pundits Already Lowering Expectations Bar for Q1

Q4 GDP was revised again Friday, but the real story here is analysts’ low expectations for Q1

US Q4 2014 GDP was revised for a third time Friday, with headline growth remaining unchanged at 2.2% (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

But what does this really all mean?  Click here to read the full article on MarketMinder.com

Charts Are Pretty, But Not Predictive

Technical analysis returned to headlines this week. What can investors glean from it all?

“The S&P 500 Fell Below Its 50-Day Moving Average. What Happens Next?” Well, what happened next were rallying stock prices putting the index back above that allegedly meaningful moving marker. But rather than sounding the all clear, all this does is remind us clearly that basing your strategy on technical indicators is a faulty approach.

Click here for the complete story on MarketMinder.com

One-Two-Three-Four, Who Declares a Currency War?

Are we in a currency war?

Currency war. It’s when countries collect all their spare change, ready the sling shots and … Just kidding. A currency war—or less colorfully, a “competitive devaluation”—is supposedly where countries deliberately reduce exchange rates to gain an edge in trade. Many say we’re in one now and it will cause market mayhem—perhaps even ending in a 1930s-style scenario of devaluations and beggar-thy-neighbor trade tariffs. Eek! But a careful look suggests this narrative is pure fiction. We see no evidence of currency wars—just people reading way too much into normal monetary policy moves. In our view, currency wars are just one more false fear in the bull market’s wall of worry.

Click here to read the full story on Marketminder.com

Blinded by Shiny Objects?

Gold and silver are up a wee bit off their November 2014 bear market lows, and here is what some people have to say about it:

There’s a competitive currency devaluation coming. … Gold is your natural hedge against that.”

Gold, traditionally seen as maintaining its value against floating currencies, has prospered with markets on edge as central banks have attempted to deal with deflation in the wake of falling oil prices.”

These gains come at a time when other commodity prices continue to fall. So far in 2015, gold and silver are not commodities; they are once again acting like currencies, hard currencies.”

There is more. This. And this. And this, this and this. All saying gold and silver will be money-making magic because of euroland quantitative easing, global currency swings, inflation (?) and recent past performance. Please do yourself a favor and don’t get sucked in—none of that makes gold or silver smashing investments.

Read the full story here.